Theodore Modis., Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future, 1992.
p.156
fifty-six-year economic cycle
pp.156-157
Ever since I became aware of the fifty-six-year {56-year} economic cycle, my concern was not whether a Wall Street crash was around the corner but rather what must one do when faced with an immiment stock market crash. My calculations suggested a crash around 1985, and the minimum precaution to take was stay away from the stock market.
p.157
And so I did. Month after month I resisted the temptation to buy stocks. Colleagues at work would get excited about the bullish market. Favorable terms were offered to buy the company stock. People around me watched their money grow daily. I kept quiet, hoping to be vindicated by the eventual crash ── but nothing came. Months went by and the market was still growing. Years when by! Well into 1987 my colleagues had all gotten richer while I was feeling rather sour.
p.157
I broke down. It was fall, the leaves were changing color, and I was going to the mountains for the weekend with a friend. I had had enough of holding back. I wanted to be like the others. Friday afternoon I called my bank with an order to buy. I left for the weekend with a feeling that I had finally escaped inaction. I had at last done something, something I would look forward to on Monday.
p.157
Over the weekend I enjoyed extraordinary scenery, good weather, reasonable food, and friendship. But there were more important things waiting for me back at work. Monday, October 19, 1987, the stock market crashed. I was crushed. The amount of money I had lost was not so important, but the pain was excruciating. At the same time, on another level, my beliefs had been reinforced.
p.157
The system had behaved according to the plan, was if it had a program, a will, and a clock. I had access to this knowledge early enough. My error was due to human weakness; I had not been scientific. The clock was rather precise, but I should have allowed for an uncertainty of a few percent.
p.157
At any rate the crash was over and the stock market largely recovered in a few years.
p.157
But what remained the same was our general position in the long economic cycle: the recession years.
p.157
The flares in energy prices in Figure 8.3 can be seen as banners indicating the beginning of an economic downtrend, the end of which we have not yet reached. We will have to wait until 1996 before the growth trend turns around.
pp.156-157
1985
[ My calculations suggested a crash around 1985 ]
Monday, October 19, 1987 U.S. stock market crash (U.S.)
1996
(Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future / Theodore Modis., 1. forecasting., 2. creation (literary, artistic, etc.)
3. science and civilization., CB 158.M63, 303.49--dc20, 1992
, )
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pp.156-157
[ My calculations suggested a crash around 1985 ]
Monday, October 19, 1987 U.S. stock market crash (U.S.)
(pp.156-157, Theodore Modis., Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future, 1992.)
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Ron Suskind, The Price of Loyalty, 2004
pp.193-194
“Michele, if you look at the data point”, O'Neill said, racing between interviews in New York on September 17, “over the past forty years when the market has fallen sharply, it has risen within a year and a half.”
Michele was dumbstruck, “You actually got that from a factual analysis? Why didn't you say that?”
O'Neill shrugged. “No one asked.”
(Ron Suskind, The Price of Loyalty : George H. Bush, the White House, and the Eduction of Paul O'Neill, 2004)
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https://tildes.net/~humanities/vpc/how_socialists_solved_the_housing_crisis_of_vienna_after_ww1_and_how_we_can_do_it_again
Title How Socialists Solved The Housing Crisis
Authors The Gravel Institute
Duration 9:00
Published Jan 29 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVuCZMLeWko
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVuCZMLeWko
Socialism Won't Solve the Housing Crisis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_j4tjiJ7MA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_j4tjiJ7MA
4:00
How Singapore fixed its housing problem
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cjPgNBNeLU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cjPgNBNeLU
Bloomberg
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